Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

Comments

SCN Global Flow Monitor · Supply Chain Network Dynamics · Global Crude Oil Trade
📄 Read the paper - arXiv:2607.17491

• Destabilized Nodes - Systemic Deficit (MMbbl/wk) - Throughput Q(T)/Q(0) - Clearing Price p(T)
• ☰ Scenario
• ✕ Disruption Scenario Shock Target
• Scenario Preset: Historical analog (70% · 12 wks), Severe disruption (30% · 26 wks), Extreme stress test (10% · 52 wks), Custom
• Capacity Retained: 30%
• Demand Elasticity ε: 0.10
• Supply Elasticity η: 0.10
• Horizon: 26 wks
• RUN SHOCK SIMULATION
• Shock target: Collapse >60%, Degraded 10-60%, Insulated Overland / pipeline, Fixed, Endogenous
• ▶ Week 0.0 $75.00 [1 wk/s, 2 wk/s, 4 wk/s, 8 wk/s]

SIMULATION - stress test, not a forecast · UN Comtrade 2025 reported flows (sanctioned / unreported trade not represented) · arXiv:2607.17491

Analytics

• Market Price p(t)
• Downstream Flow Losses
• Emergency Stockpile Drawdown (% remaining)

Model & calibration

Supply Chain Networks - fluid-stochastic network clearing, Skorokhod inventory dynamics, endogenous pricing with strategic trade rebalancing. Stockpile-depletion events shown for net-importer emergency buffers; exporter buffers are elastic-supply accounts (see paper §5.2). Capacity-retained settings bundle bypass infrastructure (e.g., East-West & Habshan-Fujairah pipelines for Hormuz). No rationing policy is modeled: buffers drain mechanically.

arXiv:2607.17491 - arxiv.org/abs/2607.17491