Stanford study says 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets enable settlement manipulation

Stanford study says 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets enable settlement manipulation

Researchers found that Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives to manipulate spot prices around contract settlement, proposing longer settlement windows as a potential fix.

Here’s what happened in crypto today.

World Cup winner bets on Polymarket.

Source: Polymarket

The sector’s growth has coincided with mounting legal scrutiny. Several US states have challenged companies, including Kalshi and Polymarket, this year, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has argued that federally regulated event contracts fall under its “exclusive jurisdiction” rather than state gambling laws.

The dispute is now moving through the federal courts, and legal observers have said conflicting appellate rulings could eventually prompt the US Supreme Court to decide whether states or the CFTC have primary authority over prediction markets.

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