Consumers Perceive Inflation at Three Times the Real Rate, CBS Survey Finds

Dutch consumers estimate inflation at roughly three times the actual figure, according to a new survey by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) on perceived inflation. Since the energy crisis of 2022, the gap between perceived and real inflation has failed to narrow.

The CBS measures perceived inflation through a consumer survey asking how respondents experienced price changes over the past twelve months. The median of those estimates is used as the benchmark.

While perceived inflation has consistently run higher than measured inflation over the past decade, the gap widened dramatically after the 2022 energy crisis. Actual inflation has since fallen back to around 3 percent, close to pre-crisis levels. Yet consumers report feeling an inflation rate of roughly 8 percent - more than double what they felt before 2022.

CBS economist Frank Notten attributes the disparity to a psychological hangover from the energy crisis. "People still compare today's prices to those before the energy crisis, but inflation is measured against prices exactly one year earlier."

Between 2021 and 2022, prices surged nearly 20 percent in just over a year - a shock consumers have not fully processed, Notten said, describing it as "a kind of trauma." The fact that prices continued rising afterward, albeit more slowly, leaves the average consumer believing inflation remains sky-high. "People always remember price increases far better than periods when prices stay flat."

The CBS also examined inflation expectations. In early 2026, 55 percent of respondents expected inflation to rise further - a spike the bureau attributes to Middle East tensions and concerns over higher fuel prices. That figure has since returned to about 33 percent, the same level as the start of the year.