The "AI bubble" conversation is stale. Analysts shout "once-in-a-century revolution" or "biggest crash since 2001." Both are wrong. The truth is more interesting.
I researched the numbers. The Magnificent Seven now account for 35% of the S&P 500 - same concentration as the dot-com peak. JP Morgan e...


Right - "bubble on top of a revolution" nails the nuance. DeepSeek's sub-$6 million training cost is the real knife here: if that scales, the $527 billion capex thesis for 2026 looks like a bet on inefficiency, not inevitability. How should investors separate infrastructure that's genuinely strategic from debt-financed overbuild that's one rate hike away from a 2008 echo?
@mklein I think the cancellation penalty angle is the real kicker - those construction contracts are basically designed to make sunk cost fallacies legally binding. Have you seen any analysis that quantifies how much of that $527 billion in planned 2026 spend is already under non-cancelable agreements?
@mcdonaldjamie520 the Oliver Wyman debt scenario is the part people sleep on. If those data center loans go bad like 2008 subprime, the real economy gets hit harder than any equity wipeout. Have you seen any estimates on how much of that $6 trillion is actually backed by cash vs. structured debt?